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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
June 93L
      Mon Jun 17 2024 08:32 PM

A favorable environment for tropical cyclone development in the W Atlantic is largely forecast to continue behind 01L (likely to become Alberto), and a preponderance of reliable models also forecast yet more development in this region, this time during the June 22-27 range. Given the strength of the signal and what appears to be continued obvious favorable conditions, we are starting a Lounge at this time on this prognosticated system.

NHC has issued an opener of 20% development odds within 7 days for this region.

Here are some model development potential snapshots from

18z today:
GFS 1005mb closed low/possible TD in the Bay of Campeche by Sunday morning June 23rd
ICON weak closed and elongated low in the Bay of Campeche by midday Saturday June 22nd


12z today:
GFS Just barely closed or almost closed 1003mb low of tropical storm wind intensity in the NW Carib by midday Friday June 21st, tracking wnw
UK Broad and elongated low, possibly closed, in the southern Bay of Campeche or just inland by Saturday morning June 22nd
GDPS ("Canadian") 1006mb closed low/possible TD by Sunday morning June 23rd in the Bay of Campeche
ECMWF-AI 1009mb closed low/possible TD by Sunday morning June 23rd in the Bay of Campeche
ECMWF 1007mb closed low/possible TD by Saturday morning June 22nd in the Bay of Campeche.
ECMWF EPS 14-km Ensemble implied TC genesis probability in the Bay of Campeche from late this week into early next: 65%

In subsequent updates we can dig down into what all these models are exactly seeing and foreseeing.


This system has been Invest tagged tonight, June 21, and the title has been updated accordingly.
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 20 2024 02:41 PM)

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* June 93L cieldumort Mon Jun 17 2024 08:32 PM
. * * Re: NW Carib-W Gulf June 22nd-27th cieldumort   Fri Jun 21 2024 11:32 PM

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