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#Beryl now a Hurricane with 75mph. Now Forecast to be a 120mph Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Barbados, Watches for other areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#6 4:00 am EDT
10.4N 51.2W
Wind: 85MPH
Pres: 986mb
Moving:
W at 20 mph
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2334
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Storm 1L Lounge
      Tue Jun 18 2024 07:45 PM

Recon is back in 01L presently.

Models have really consolidated around this hook left into Mexico whether or not 01L decisively becomes a tropical cyclone. There may have been some trend of the system today to begin organizing a tad north and east of where earlier model runs expected it to be, so that may call into question how much this consensus should be relied upon, but either way, the system will be sprawling, and the exact point of landfall is almost a moot point as far as impacts.

Something else to watch for is how much tug 01L may feel into the deeper convection. At the moment, there is a bit of balance in that deeper convection is primarily to the north and south of the approximate center, with some also a bit northwest and east-southeast. Should one or two quadrants dominate, that might induce a bit of pull bias, although probably not all that much, given its extreme size.

NHC has also mentioned that the model trackers look to be faster than believable, and has set the official NHC forecast track slower than deterministic and consensus trackers. If this NHC call bears out, it is also conceivable that the system has some more time over water than some modeling would otherwise imply.

0z runs out tonight with more recon data to work with. Could be enlightening.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alberto Lounge cieldumort Tue Jun 18 2024 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Alberto Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jun 21 2024 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Storm 1L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jun 18 2024 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Bay of Campeche Mid-Late June cieldumort   Sat Jun 15 2024 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Bay of Campeche Mid-Late June cieldumort   Fri Jun 14 2024 03:41 PM

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