MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Invest 95L Lounge
Thu Jun 27 2024 06:05 AM
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0z GFS now shows a category 2 hurricane approaching Grenada and St. VIncent and the Grenadines on Monday. Then weakening back to a tropical storm, as it nears Jamaica on Wednesday, passing south of Grand Cayman, then getting south of Cozumel on Friday the 5th as a weaker system. Then crosses the Yucatan peninsula and winds up making landfall as a weak system near where Alberto did in Mexico. GFS also shows a "Chaser" system behind 95L.
0z Canadian is not as strong (More like a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane as it nears the islands) , but slower forward motion. IT t does get closer to Barbados than the GFS, further away from Jamaica, but closer to Grand Cayman, and eventual landfall near Cozumel, MX.
0z Euro is weaker overall (More like a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane as it nears the islands) , but is also closer to Barbados. Stays further south than the others into the Caribbean and landfalls near the Nicaragua/Honduras border Thrusday of next week.
Generally, still to far to say, but it's most likely this stays in the Caribbean the entire run and is unlikely to get north of there. A few ensemble members of the Euro show it, but the vast majority keep it in the Caribbean. the 6z gfs bends it more north however, and goes through Cuba winding up in the Gulf, so monitoring the system for a while may be necessary. Once it develops and some recon is in there track may get a little more solid.
most likely, it's moderate and stays within the Caribbean. Lesser Antilles definitely need to watch.
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