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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Milton) , Major: 43 (Milton) Florida - Any: 43 (Milton) Major: 43 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 95L Lounge
      Thu Jun 27 2024 07:36 PM

The 12z ensemble runs are out and up on Weathernerds.org now. These are often a better guide, albeit also quite early, for a feature that is not yet a TC and simply Invest tagged, than either the vort-centric models (best for bona fide TCs) or even the deterministic runs, that oversell what their particular biases are. E.g., significant development on virtually anything that spins by the operational GFS.




The early EURO ensembles (above) suggest that 95L would ultimately have a more northerly track if stronger, and a more westerly track if weaker, with a few exceptions.




The early GFS ensembles appear more evenly divided, with opportunities for both westward and northward tracks, regardless of intensity. This may be in part due to the early development bias still in these, along with an expectation for some higher net shear in the Caribbean, ending some runs and moderating others.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beryl Lounge cieldumort Thu Jun 27 2024 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jul 07 2024 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge JMII   Sun Jul 07 2024 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jul 07 2024 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2024 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jul 08 2024 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jul 02 2024 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge Bloodstar   Wed Jul 03 2024 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge JMII   Wed Jul 03 2024 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MichaelA   Wed Jul 03 2024 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 30 2024 03:58 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 30 2024 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge JMII   Sun Jun 30 2024 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 30 2024 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 29 2024 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 28 2024 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 27 2024 06:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 04:17 AM

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