MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Invest 95L Lounge
Fri Jun 28 2024 07:02 AM
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0z ensembles show a split, with a favor toward the rest runs, a lot depends on how soon and how much 95L organizes in the near term.
06z GFS is closer to Barbados and St. Lucia/St. Vincent than earlier runs, and it gets there as a cat 1/2 hurricane on Monday. Then moves more west northwest and the system weakens greatly near Hispaniola. With the chaser system (that only it and the CMC show, not the Euro) gains, the followup then crosses Cuba and rides just east of the Florida coast around Juliy 7th and goes into Georgia as a tropical storm. This scenario seems too wild to take into account, although the system weakining int he Caribbean is likely.
0z CMC has a cat 1 landfall in ST. Lucia on Monday, then keeps it strong all the way into a landfall on the Belize Mexico border on July 6th. The chaser system is also there on this model, and that gets into the Gulf as a TS or Cat 1 hurricane.
The chaser is a wildcard on those models.
0z Euro has landfall near St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Monday, with a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane. Then landfall in Hornduras just north of the Nicaragua border as a tropical storm on Thursday. There is still no sign of any chaser system on the Euro. Although the TWO has that potential area at 20% now.
Beyond that a bit scattered, still most ensembles and the euro/CMS favors it staying in the Caribbean.
Takeaway, the Leewards may want to prepare for a hurricane, beyond that too soon to tell, but most likely it weakens and moves west in the Caribbean, I highly doubt it gets into the Gulf. Also need to watch if anything forms or not east of 95L later.
Edited by CFHC (Fri Jun 28 2024 09:36 AM)
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