cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
Sat Jun 29 2024 01:52 AM
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Most years, preseason and early season tropical cyclone activity does not portend an active season over all. However, as Dr. Philip Klotzbach @PhilKlotzbach points out, the years when we have early activity out in the Tropical Atlantic do, with a notable exception of 2013.
Recently Dr. Klotzbach recently added, "7 years on record (since 1851) have had named storm formation in tropical Atlantic (S of 20°N, E of 60°W) by 4 July: 1901, 1933, 1979, 2008, 2017, 2021, 2023."
Meanwhile, Dr. Tomer Burg @burgwx notes, "Caribbean hurricanes aren't uncommon - but they are far less common this time of year in the deep tropics. Only 4 category 2+ hurricanes are known to have tracked through this corridor before July 10th"
Newly named Tropical Storm Beryl is explicitly forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane tracking through this corridor, and actually well before July 10th. This would put 2024's Beryl in the company of the following other names and years: Bertha (2008), Dennis (2005), Bertha (1996) and lastly "Unnamed" from 1933.
Image credit: Tomer Burg @burgwx
Here are the official season stats for the above identified years. Next to each season I also note if the ENSO state was (El Niño, Neutral or La Niña). This matters, as generally El Niño tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic basin, whereas Neutral ENSOs and La Niña years often enhance it.
Disclaimer: It is important to note that additional tropical cyclones were possibly missed before the satellite era, so official counts prior to 1966 may not reflect actual totals.
1901 (ENSO Neutral): 13 Storms, 6 Hurs, 0 Majors
1933 (ENSO Neutral): 20 Storms, 11 Hurs, 6 Majors
1979 (ENSO Neutral to Weak El Niño): 9 Storms, 6 Hurs, 2 Majors
1996 (ENSO Neutral): 13 Storms, 9 Hurs, 6 Majors
2005 (ENSO Neutral): 28 Storms, 15 Hurs, 7 Majors
2008 (ENSO Neutral to Weak La Niña): 16 Storms, 8 Hurs, 5 Majors
2017 (ENSO Neutral to Weak La Niña): 17 Storms, 10 Hurs, 6 Majors
2021 (ENSO La Niña): 21 Storms, 7 Hurs, 4 Majors
2023 (ENSO Moderate to Strong El Niño): 20 Storms, 7 Hurs, 3 Majors
Last year is the only outright Niño year on the list, and a fairly strong one at that. It appears that the Atlantic still went gangbusters because SSTs were record warm, overcoming the background ENSO state.
The current state of ENSO in 2024 is Neutral with a forecast to trend into a La Niña later this year.
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