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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 310 (Idalia) , Major: 310 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 310 (Idalia) Major: 310 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#29 10:00 pm EDT
21.2N 89.2W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 989mb
Moving:
Wnw at 15 mph
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2346
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Beryl Lounge
      Sat Jun 29 2024 04:24 AM

Here are my initial maximum lifetime intensity probabilities expectations for Beryl.

Lower than normal confidence owing to a number of early season variables still in play that are less so during the true climo peak, as well as the consensus forecast track that is presently advertising land interactions, some of it potentially mountainous and disruptive.

Low-end Tropical Storm (Current advisory): Nearly 0%
Mid-range Tropical Storm: 1%
High-end Tropical Storm: 4%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 14%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 18%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 22%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 25%
Cat5 Hurricane: 16%

Another way of looking at this, is that I anticipate Beryl to have a 95% chance of becoming a hurricane during his existence and a 63% chance of becoming a Major.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beryl Lounge cieldumort Sat Jun 29 2024 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jul 05 2024 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jul 02 2024 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge Bloodstar   Wed Jul 03 2024 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge JMII   Wed Jul 03 2024 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MichaelA   Wed Jul 03 2024 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 30 2024 03:58 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 30 2024 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge JMII   Sun Jun 30 2024 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 30 2024 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Beryl Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 29 2024 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 28 2024 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 27 2024 06:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 04:17 AM

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