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Historic #HurricaneBeryl is now also the earliest #Cat 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#13A 1:00 am EDT
13.4N 64.0W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 938mb
Moving:
Wnw at 21 mph
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ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2341
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
      Sat Jun 29 2024 12:02 PM

Something else to consider when comparing 2024 to prior years and looking for best analogs...


As of the June 29, 2024 11AM Advisory, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly forecasts Rapid Intensification and brings Beryl up to Major (Cat 3+) before it even reaches the Windwards. For the time of year, this is unprecedented.

Just looking at hurricanes passing within 100 miles of Barbados this early in a season, Dr. Philip Klotzbach notes: "Only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Barbados prior to 1 August: Emily (2005) and Elsa (2021)"


Taking a look at the intensities and tracks of our two only analogs for this event:


Above: Elsa (2021) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1


Above: Emily (2005) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates cieldumort Sat Jun 29 2024 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates cieldumort   Thu Jun 27 2024 05:19 AM
. * * Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates cieldumort   Tue Jun 11 2024 07:28 PM

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