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Hurricane Warning from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent. Tropical Storm Warning N of Sargent to High Island. Storm Surge Warning N Ent Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass, inc Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay. #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#32A 7:00 pm EDT
23.6N 92.7W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 12 mph
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert
      Sat Jun 29 2024 12:05 PM

As of the June 29, 2024 11AM Advisory, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly forecasts Rapid Intensification and brings Beryl up to Major (Cat 3+) before it even reaches the Windwards. For the time of year, this is unprecedented.

Just looking at hurricanes passing within 100 miles of Barbados this early in a season, Dr. Philip Klotzbach notes: "Only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Barbados prior to 1 August: Emily (2005) and Elsa (2021)"


Taking a look at the intensities and tracks of our two only analogs for this event:


Above: Elsa (2021) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1


Above: Emily (2005) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1


More seasonal 2024 analog tracking can be found here 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert CFHCAdministrator Sat Jun 29 2024 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert cieldumort   Mon Jul 01 2024 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert cieldumort   Mon Jul 01 2024 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 01 2024 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 30 2024 07:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert cieldumort   Sun Jun 30 2024 07:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert cieldumort   Sat Jun 29 2024 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Two Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 28 2024 09:39 PM

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