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Development chances in the Gulf of Mexico are going up and a named storm could be approaching the US next week. Very active period continues. Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Helene) , Major: 7 (Helene) Florida - Any: 7 (Helene) Major: 7 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#22 5:00 pm EDT
23.7N 49.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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TS Leslie
ADV#10 5:00 pm EDT
10.3N 33.6W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2427
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Category 5 Beryl in the Caribbean
      Thu Jul 04 2024 02:17 AM

The last few recon passes through Beryl have shown an obvious weakening trend, but since the last flight, Beryl's appearance on satellite seems to be improving some, and its outflow may be starting to fend off some of that westerly shear again.

By Friday, shear could even start to relax, and so Beryl has the potential to be a little healthier than official forecasts. This is still a cyclone that has repeatedly over-performed. Either way, hurricane conditions are expected on the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan peninsula:
Quote:


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City



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Subject Posted by Posted on
* BERYL cieldumort Thu Jul 04 2024 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Category 5 Beryl in the Caribbean cieldumort   Thu Jul 04 2024 02:17 AM

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