cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Beryl Lounge
Fri Jul 05 2024 02:51 AM
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Beryl continues its persistent trend of over-performing, and rather than weakening into a Cat 1 last night as many model runs expected, re-intensified to Cat 3. In addition, looking at many of the ensembles that have been showing a track more westerly into Mexico and then Mexico again (closer to Tampico, MX, with some ensembles even south of there), those members are already quite a bit too far south and generally too weak.
In summary, Beryl probably stands a better chance of retaining more of its inner core while crossing the Yucatan, and may then find itself in the following environment that is both an intensity and steering concern for Texas:
1. Lower shear
2. High Ocean Heat Content
3. A weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf and right up into Texas
4. A risk of weakening of steering currents should/once Beryl be approaching and/or inland over Texas
This combination of ingredients could result in
A. A significantly stronger cyclone than was anticipated even just a day or two ago.
B. A track decidedly more towards the Texas coastline than Mexico's, along with a slowing down of forward speed before, during and/or after, should it make this turn
Net result of a stronger cyclone w slower forward speed: Greater direct coastal impacts along Texas and greater inland flooding
While not yet the official forecast from NHC, the OFCL continues trending this way.
Here are some vort-centered 05/0z runs:
GFS: Landfall just southeast of Corpus Christi very early Monday morning Cat 1
HWRF: Landfall near Baffin Bay/Padre (just southeast of Corpus Christi) Monday morning a high-end Cat 1
HMON: Landfall just southeast of Corpus late Sunday overnight/predawn Monday a strong tropical storm
HAFS-A Landfall just southeast of Brownsville, TX late Sunday night Cat 1
HAFS-B Landfall about 50 miles SSE of Brownsville, TX late Sunday night high-end tropical storm
Worth noting that ICON continues to be the northerly outlier of all the major models and yet the rest of the primary models keep trending more towards it and not the other way around. ICON has generally been advertising a Major landfalling somewhere between Corpus and Galveston Monday morning.
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