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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge
Mon Jul 29 2024 02:05 PM

Here is a current view of our two part Area of Interest. NHC has most everyone focused on the area of disturbed weather with some gentle elongated rotation I have labeled PT 1. However, the more significant player is likely to be the tropical wave and its large gyre I have labeled here as PT 2.

Both the gyre and its embedded well-defined LLC are presently void of any thunderstorms, as is the area of disturbed weather to its southwest (PT 1). With echos of 2013, the Atlantic has been struggling throughout the month of July to produce anything given the exceptionally large plumes of SAL coming off Africa, along with an unfavorable MJO state. As we enter August this begins to turn less unfavorable, with a reduction in the amount of dry, dusty Saharan air forecast to coincide with at least a somewhat more favorable MJO background state.

Big picture, gradual organization of the two combined features, probably ultimately focusing more within the gyre (PT 2), does seem possible.

Operational model runs have really backed off today, and 50% development odds within 7 days may be about right.

The risk of either feature or their combo becoming a strong tropical storm or hurricane is of course better if the system/s overall stay/s south or north of the largest and tallest islands. Significant development north of those islands could favor a track more towards the Carolinas, and/or even out to sea. Significant development south of those islands might favor central America to Mexico. Modest development might favor Florida and/or Gulf Coast states.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Debby Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 29 2024 02:05 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 04 2024 04:15 AM
Re: Debby Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Aug 04 2024 04:57 AM
Re: Debby Lounge	JMII	Sun Aug 04 2024 12:09 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Aug 04 2024 03:21 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	Owlguin	Sun Aug 04 2024 03:37 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	JMII	Sun Aug 04 2024 05:29 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 04 2024 11:45 PM
Re: Debby Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Aug 04 2024 08:15 PM
Re: FOUR Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Aug 02 2024 11:27 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Aug 01 2024 04:26 AM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Aug 01 2024 08:01 AM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	bob3d	Thu Aug 01 2024 12:52 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Aug 01 2024 04:06 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 01 2024 06:03 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	bob3d	Thu Aug 01 2024 06:29 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 01 2024 11:44 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Aug 02 2024 06:41 AM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 02 2024 07:15 AM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	JMII	Fri Aug 02 2024 08:51 AM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	CFHC	Fri Aug 02 2024 01:08 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Aug 02 2024 04:23 PM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	bob3d	Fri Aug 02 2024 04:52 PM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 02 2024 10:18 PM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 02 2024 11:29 PM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Aug 03 2024 06:20 AM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	JMII	Sat Aug 03 2024 11:09 AM
Re: PTC4 Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Aug 03 2024 04:13 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	JMII	Thu Aug 01 2024 03:10 PM
Re: Invest 97L Lounge	CFHC	Thu Aug 01 2024 03:13 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	CFHC	Wed Jul 31 2024 02:04 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	JMII	Wed Jul 31 2024 03:15 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	CFHC	Wed Jul 31 2024 04:03 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 31 2024 07:37 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 31 2024 07:58 PM
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 01 2024 01:30 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 30 2024 02:51 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 30 2024 07:30 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	CFHC	Tue Jul 30 2024 01:34 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Jul 30 2024 10:08 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 30 2024 07:29 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Jul 31 2024 07:46 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Jul 29 2024 02:05 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 29 2024 05:35 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Jul 28 2024 05:32 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jul 28 2024 12:49 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge	bob3d	Mon Jul 29 2024 12:41 PM

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