MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge
Tue Jul 30 2024 07:30 AM
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Overnight models are split, from the 0z Icon and CMC staying offshore of Florida and east of the US (Barley),
The 0z Euro does move it into South Florida a s a weak system (wave/depression on Sunday, spins then heads out through Flagler Beach) then stalls a bit offshore of Myrtle Beach, SC.
The 6z GFS, though, is still farther west, gets blocked and then moves in the Gulf (nearly touching Louisana0 but eventually landfalling near Corpus Christi, TX as a cat 2 hurricane on Friday August 9th. The 0z ruin was similar too, but more like a Cat 3 to Bolivar TX.
The UKMet itself now also takes the system into the Gulf over the Keys on Saturday as a weak storm/depression, then rides offshore along the west coast of Florida until the run ends before another landfall.
So one theme between the major models is the system gets blocked, Euro is further east so it gets blocked some over florida then stalls near the SC/NC Border, the GFS gets further west and just gets blocked and shoved west all the way across the Gulf. Considering none of the models really develop anything until this weekend, speculation is really high now. So it's important to keep monitoring from the Caribbean islands, Bahamas, and SE And Gulf coasts.'
Add to the above, that most of the Euro Ensembles still keep it east and offshore of Florida, though, but some go into the Carolinas or slow down offshore, which is likely why the 8am outlook shows what it shows..
Middle of the model road is probably a large rain event for parts of FL/GC/SC. Stronger near term implies more of a right turn, less organize gives it a chance to move further west into Florida or Gulf, if it stays further south, GFS/UK more likely.
Edited by CFHC (Tue Jul 30 2024 10:22 AM)
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