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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge
      Thu Aug 01 2024 04:26 AM

Would be easy to see this Invest tagged today.

The robust tropical wave is already producing numerous strong showers and thunderstorms, and while the largest and tallest islands are along its track ahead, modeling keeps trending towards the GFS, which had been an outlier, favoring a future in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This would be one of the scenarios that would most favor the opportunity for a hurricane to form, and potentially a Major as shown in the very bullish GFS run above, provided potential future Debby gets enough time over the Gulf waters.

I'd very much like to see recon begin flying the environment within and ahead of the wave to help models get a better handle on this. It is concerning that the once outlier GFS seems to be leading the pack.

2AM TWO NHC odds of tropical cyclogenesis are 10% within 48 hours and still only 60% within 7 days. This may prove conservative on the 7 days (now more into the 5 day range), and justifiably, PTC watches and warnings could be issued over the weekend without a formed system.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Debby Lounge MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 01 2024 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 04 2024 04:15 AM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Aug 04 2024 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge JMII   Sun Aug 04 2024 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Aug 04 2024 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge Owlguin   Sun Aug 04 2024 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge JMII   Sun Aug 04 2024 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 04 2024 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Debby Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Aug 04 2024 08:15 PM
. * * Re: FOUR Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 02 2024 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge cieldumort   Thu Aug 01 2024 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge MichaelA   Thu Aug 01 2024 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge bob3d   Thu Aug 01 2024 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 01 2024 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 01 2024 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge bob3d   Thu Aug 01 2024 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 01 2024 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 02 2024 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2024 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 02 2024 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2024 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 02 2024 04:23 PM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge bob3d   Fri Aug 02 2024 04:52 PM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2024 10:18 PM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2024 11:29 PM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge IsoFlame   Sat Aug 03 2024 06:20 AM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 03 2024 11:09 AM
. * * Re: PTC4 Lounge IsoFlame   Sat Aug 03 2024 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 01 2024 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Aug 01 2024 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jul 31 2024 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge JMII   Wed Jul 31 2024 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jul 31 2024 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 31 2024 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 31 2024 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Island Wave Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 01 2024 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jul 30 2024 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 30 2024 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Jul 30 2024 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Jul 30 2024 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 30 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Jul 31 2024 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jul 29 2024 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 29 2024 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jul 28 2024 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 28 2024 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge bob3d   Mon Jul 29 2024 12:41 PM

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