MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Invest 97L Lounge
Fri Aug 02 2024 07:15 AM
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today where the system consolidates around Cuba is going to determine if a lot of the modeling is right or wrong. Mostly the hurricane models like HWRF,HAFS, HMON, but also things like the GFS too. Since where something formed was always a question for the the last few days.
6Z GFS gets it together on the north side of Cuba, due south of Marathon in the Keys. Then takes it over the Dry Tortugas, making a TD landfall near Venice, FL Sunday Morning, then out in the Atlantic by Sunday night near St. Augustine. Keeps most of the rain confined to Saturday and Sunday this way in Florida.then rides offshore of the southeast and Outer Banks and out to sea, the stalling really doesn't happen this run, although the run is west of the 0z later in the run (Which went further away from land) System peaks as a cat 2 hurricane just east of North Carolina.
The 0z Euro is weaker and slower, gets it more into the Gulf, and a slow landfall Monday morning in the Cedar Key/Big Bend, exits into the Atlantic early Tuesday morning near the FL/GA line, then gets a little stronger, but not much and eventually landfalls near New Bern, NC on Thursday morning. Euro is a LOT more rain for Florida than the GFS this run. 6z euro also gets into Cedar Key as a Tropical Storm monday morning.
0z CMC is a fast mover, over the Keys Saturday morning goes into the gulf, TD landfall near tampa bay early Sunday morning, and stays inland, and gets toward NC by Monday night. This seems unlikely because the system already is too far west for this to verify. But the CMC is the least rain out of all of them.
06z Icon is slower (Weak TD), landfall in Big Ben Monday morning, enters Atlantic near Brunswick, GA Tuesday morning. Then rapidly becomes a hurricane offshore of NC by the end of the run Wednesday morning. (0z icon wasn't quite as strong, but the longer run showed it landfalling at Oak Island, NC early Thursday as a hurricane, which 6z probably would as well extended a few frames).
0z HAFS A shows a TS/Cat 1 hurricane landfalling in the Big Bend Monday morning and meandering, lots of rain there. (Note the hurricane models don't do well with something that hasn't formed yet)
0z HAFS A shows a TS/Cat 2 hurricane landfalling in the Big Bend Closer to the Forgotten coast Monday afternoon and meandering inland, also lots of rain there. 0z HMON has a strong TS/cat 1 hurricane landfalling at Cedar Key Monday morning and eventually exits into the Atlantic near Savannah, GA Wednesday morning. Rainy, but not as much so as the HAFS models for Florida. HWRF shows a strong TS/Hurricane landfalling at Cedar Key Sunday night, exits by Brunswick, GA Monday morning then stalls a ways offshore of Savannah, GA the rest of the run (Through Wednesday morning).
6z TVCN consensus is toward Cedar Key.
(Note these last 4 hurricane models don't do well with something that hasn't formed yet)
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