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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New MDR Wave
      Sat Aug 03 2024 05:38 PM

In general, the probabilities for development in the Tropical Atlantic have been going up. For this particular wave, its chances look better once closer to or outright in the Caribbean.

The probabilities shown in the TCFPGP below also include the next wave coming up, but it does still advertise the improving conditions across the Tropical Atlantic overall.

Below:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product Developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA
0-48h TC Formation Probability


Below:
Today's 12z ECMWF ensembles-implied probabilities of development from this wave out 24-72 hours. As can be seen, these runs suggest its chances increase substantially once in the Caribbean.


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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bay of Campeche Wave cieldumort Sat Aug 03 2024 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Bay of Campeche Wave cieldumort   Sat Aug 10 2024 05:31 PM
. * * Re: New MDR Wave cieldumort   Mon Aug 05 2024 04:44 PM
. * * Re: New MDR Wave cieldumort   Sun Aug 04 2024 05:15 PM
. * * Re: New MDR Wave cieldumort   Sat Aug 03 2024 05:38 PM

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