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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Next MDR Wave
      Fri Aug 09 2024 09:26 AM

Quote:

Steering currents favor a track that would take this system, developed or not, towards the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, then depending on how well formed it is as well as how much high pressure to its north is built in, may ultimately pose a threat to the CONUS and/or Bermuda and/or Canada.



Just like with Debby's early pre-depression formation when consensus was east of Florida, right now I don't have confidence in current modeling suggesting recurve east of Florida. My "gut feeling" is that the Atlantic high that has been dominant this season will persist, keeping the slow to develop system on a W/WNW track (below 20N) for longer. Once the system becomes Ernesto, the later turn NW around the western extension of the ridge will potentially threaten the Florida peninsula (like with Debby), then possibly the panhandle or Big Bend region (the 3rd time in less than a year!).

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Aug 09 2024 09:35 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Lounge cieldumort Fri Aug 09 2024 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 12 2024 10:13 PM
. * * Center reformation Robert   Tue Aug 13 2024 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave IsoFlame   Fri Aug 09 2024 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave bob3d   Fri Aug 09 2024 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave IdaliaJackson   Sat Aug 10 2024 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 11 2024 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave IsoFlame   Sun Aug 11 2024 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave CFHCAdministrator   Fri Aug 09 2024 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 10 2024 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 10 2024 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Next MDR Wave IsoFlame   Sat Aug 10 2024 07:10 AM

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