cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
Mon Aug 12 2024 10:49 PM
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There have been some updates to professional seasonal forecasts the past few days.
After starting off with a bang, the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been riddled with record high dry dusty air (SAL) over the Main Development Region that has only recently begun coming back down to more normal levels. Strong high pressure across the Atlantic has also resulted in some rather fast forward speeds of would-be tropical cyclones. Additionally, the expected La Niña has so far failed to develop, with more of a "cool neutral" state in place instead, and on Thursday the Climate Prediction Center shifted their forecast La Niña start date from originally July to September, to now September to October. Finally, with things not coming into place as expected across the Atlantic, the East Pac has recently turned hot, with outflow from multiple clusters of thunderstorms and tropical cyclones increasing shear that bleeds across into the Atlantic side of central America, further suppressing development there.
Given these factors, my own best guess has gone from my preseason range of 24-36 Depressions, 22-34 Storms, 10-16 Hurricanes and 4-8 Majors, with a season ACE of 204 ± 40, and a specific best guess of 26 Storms 13 Hurricanes and 5 Majors, to 20-28 Storms, 11-14 Hurricanes and 5-8 Majors, with a season ACE of 225 ± 50, and a specific best guess of 24 Storms, 12 Hurricanes and 7 Majors. A few less names, a few more become Majors and better odds of longer tracking cyclones as the season progresses. My updated guesses have no bearing on our community contest.
As of today, August 12, climatologically speaking, 87% of an Atlantic hurricane season still lies ahead.
Colorado State released their most recent update on August 6 (Image below)
Colorado State August 6 Forecast
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