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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: NW Gulf Low
      Thu Sep 05 2024 01:13 PM

As this Low is not yet Invest-tagged, vort-centric model runs have not been initiated. However, we can still look at some of the mesoscale runs and globals. These mesoscale runs, particularly the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs), should be considered with some additional caution.

Here is an overview of some of the runs out today.


15z HRRR (CAM): Initializes 1010mb Low and drifts it southwest today off the coast of south Texas. Hooks it back towards the northwest Friday as an apparent Tropical Storm located south of the TX/LA border. 996mb high-end TS/borderline Cat 1 overnight Friday while south of Louisiana, heading east.

12z NAM3K (CAM): Sloppy, elongated double-barrel Low along Texas coast that reorganizes off of southeast Texas Thursday night/Friday morning. Apparent weak TS midday Friday southeast of Brownsville, TX and swirls offshore around there until end of run 18z Saturday as a strong TS.

12z HWRF (CAM): Sloppy, elongated double-barrel Low in the NW GOM that never tightens up and remains stretched out through end of run Saturday 12z

12z GFS: Continues the trend we've already been seeing of tightening up. Apparent TD by midday Friday while south of TX/LA border. Maybe a TS by midday Saturday and tracks south, eventually washing out and getting overrun by the approaching wave.

12z ICON: Doesn't develop it but sends it south to merge with the approaching wave that, once combined, does develop and heads back north as a developing system making landfall on Louisiana next Thursday.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Pre-Francine 90L cieldumort Thu Sep 05 2024 01:13 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Sep 09 2024 11:57 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Sep 08 2024 02:48 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 06 2024 05:56 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Sep 05 2024 08:33 PM
. * * Re: NW Gulf Low cieldumort   Thu Sep 05 2024 01:13 PM

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