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Modeled CAG/TC with now 60% NHC odds within 7 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor for potential hurricane development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Francine) , Major: 387 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 46 (Debby) Major: 387 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Sep 7 92L
      Sat Sep 07 2024 02:28 PM


Above: Central Atlantic Tropical Low Invest TBD


An area of formerly very elongated low pressure in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic well east of the Antilles has continued to consolidate and as of this afternoon has begun to take on a much more upright cylindrical look, classic of the very early stages of development into a tropical cyclone. This feature has increasing model support to potentially become the first serious TC born out of the MDR since record-setting Beryl back in June, and we are starting a Lounge on it at this time.

While this Low is not yet Invest-tagged it could easily be tagged later today or tomorrow, and the title will be updated accordingly. NHC development odds within 7 days are presently 40% and this could be conservative.

More details to come

This tropical low has been Invest-tagged this evening, 92L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2024-09-08 00:00 12.7 -42.4 25

Ciel


Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 20 2024 02:42 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sep 7 92L cieldumort Sat Sep 07 2024 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Low cieldumort   Sat Sep 07 2024 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Low IsoFlame   Wed Sep 11 2024 10:06 AM

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