cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 91L Lounge
Sun Sep 08 2024 02:30 AM
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Invest 91L remains messy and things look as though they could go any number of ways, from never organizing enough all the way to strong hurricane. This shouldn't be a surprise given how oddly this entire season has been playing out.
As of 1AM CDT, NHC's latest TWO assigns a 70% chance of 91L becoming a TC within 48 hours and 80% within 7 days. This seems very reasonable, but still does little to nothing to illuminate just how significant a TC. We should know a lot more once recon has spent some time in there tomorrow afternoon.
At present, the system we are tracking as 91L consists of two lobes tied to each other, while also starting to interact with an approaching former-90L, that swirl having largely separated from its parent front. So, there could soon even be three lobes interacting with each other.
Recent microwave passes argue for the eastern lobe of 91L to dominate, despite that the westernmost lobe, which is sporting a ball of very deep convection, could already be producing winds somewhere between 30 and 35 knots and is somewhat closed off at the surface.
Light blue: Old Invest 90L non-tropical low
Red: The west and east lobes of Invest 91L
Base image credit: Weathernerds.org
As old 90L continues south and the eastern lobe of 91L already wants to track north as it is rounding Atlantic high pressure, the path of least resistance should be to eject to the north to northwest, possibly hooking around old 90L and getting pulled more to the left for a while. All of this speculation, but models generally want to bring the system inland anywhere from south of Brownsville, TX (generally weaker) to eastern Louisiana (generally stronger).
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