Francine Lounge - FLHurricane.com

The third recon mission into SIX is in progress and the fledgling tropical cyclone may be jumping to the east. This location is actually not inside the very deep convection that IR satellite would imply.

1 min averaged winds so far are below tropical storm strength, but they have not yet sampled much of the very deep convection closer to the Mexican coastline. Much of yesterday's 40-60 MPH winds were actually the result of the barrier jet that is produced along the mountains of Mexico.

SIX may look mean and strong on infrared satellite, but under the hood remains a hodgepodge of several lobes and swirls and a trof axis that has been taking its time to congeal, but this morning does appear to be. I wouldn't expect a downgrade to TD with the 11AM, but based on what recon is actually finding under the hood, if this was their first mission it would probably be listed as a 35 MPH TD at this point.

As for SIX's future, it more likely than not will become a strong hurricane and possibly a Major. The official forecast of 80 MPH may be conservative, but OTOH much of the modeling rightly is indicative that the lumbering and large nature of the cyclone, especially after such a convoluted formation, could be slow to have the surface winds respond to the deepening and tightening low pressure.

As a reminder tho, a larger hurricane of any Saffir Simpson category can be quite destructive with surge and inland flooding oftentimes catching people by surprise who thought themselves safe from "only a category (fill in the blank)."

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