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Modeled CAG/TC next week with now 40% NHC odds within 7 days. Model-implied 80% odds within 10 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 386 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 45 (Debby) Major: 386 (Idalia)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 332
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Long Range Lounge
      Tue Sep 17 2024 11:38 AM

Central Americas gyre becoming active about the same time deep, un-worked over (since Beryl)/Debby) near-peak SST's in the western Caribbean and eastern GOMEX provide ample fuel and atmospheric conditions become extremely favorable signal that any spin-up that occurs in the region next week could have explosive potential. Modeling has been playing on this with some consistency, though ultimate track remains a question.

Given trough deepening over the western third of the CONUS and high pressure building off the mid-Atlantic coast, anything that forms may drift north then northeast into the eastern GOMEX, potentially threatening the Florida panhandle. Stay tuned...

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 17 2024 11:38 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2024 10:15 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2024 05:00 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 22 2024 06:41 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 23 2024 06:46 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 24 2024 05:19 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 25 2024 07:20 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 26 2024 08:59 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 26 2024 02:43 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Jul 26 2024 05:39 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 29 2024 04:12 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2024 06:30 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 08 2024 03:47 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 29 2024 07:32 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 29 2024 03:00 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 30 2024 03:01 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Sep 16 2024 03:40 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 17 2024 11:38 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 26 2024 07:36 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 26 2024 02:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jun 26 2024 04:13 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 15 2024 07:54 PM

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