cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC
Thu Sep 19 2024 01:17 AM
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0z models are coming in hot tonight. We still do not have even as much as a broad area of low pressure, let alone Invest or depression, so all of this should be taken with a pound of salt. However, conditions in the NW Caribbean and Gulf next week could be extraordinarily favorable for anything that wants to and does form.
19/0z Globals
GFS: Apparent TD or monsoon depression in the NW Caribbean by 12z Tuesday. Tropical Storm in NW Caribbean by 0z Wednesday. Cat 1 by 12z Wednesday in NW Caribbean tracking northwest. Cat 2/3 by 06z Thursday in the Yucatán Channel, tracking northwest. Begins slowing down and gradually rounding more to the north and probably Cat 4 by 12z Friday in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Maintains Cat 4+/- into Saturday while slowly tracking north, while also now a large high-end Major. This is potentially a wrecking ball of a surge-maker at this point. 0z Monday 30th, Tropical Storm conditions begin battering the coasts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and westernmost Florida panhandle. Begins feeling the tug to the northeast and a landfall somewhere around Port St. Joe, Florida predawn Tuesday the 1st of October as a 959+/-mb large hurricane with some probably very significant storm surge. Cuts across north Florida/SE Georgia and plops offshore of South Carolina Tuesday afternoon, tracking northeast just offshore.
ICON: Seems to delay TC genesis to predawn Tuesday Sep 24, tracking wnw across the Yucatán and into the Bay of Campeche, heading towards eastern Mexico through the end of run. Still over water at the end of run at 12z Thursday Sep 26, never stronger than a tropical storm up to this point.
GDPS: Apparent TD or monsoon depression off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras 12z this coming Monday. Sloppy Tropical Storm by 12z Tuesday in the NW Caribbean, tracking north-northwest. In the Yucatán Channel 06z Wednesday Cat 1. Large Cat 1/2 in the east-central Gulf 06z Thursday. Landfall as a large apparent Cat 2 somewhere about the far western Fl panhandle Thursday afternoon/night.
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