cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: NINE Forecast Lounge
Tue Sep 24 2024 02:03 AM
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Models are now starting to take in critical recon data, although Monday there was just one flight. Also, models have now played at least a little catch-up with how well-developed East Pac TEN-E (Major Hurricane John) became (unforeseen by the models ~ however those of us paying attention saw well ahead of time that TEN-E wanted to pull an Otis 2.0), as well as its landfall location well left of modeled forecast tracks.
Those three glaring weaknesses in earlier model runs are now starting to fall behind us, and with any luck, subsequent runs on PTC NINE will become increasingly reliable. In fact, right now two new missions are heading in to sample PTC NINE's structure and environment as I type, with many more scheduled later today and tomorrow.
With caveats, 0z hurricane runs are rolling out. Initial impression, there is a significant snap back in intensities towards the stronger runs we saw prior to the much weaker 18z batch that made some question the legitimacy of NHC's call for a Major.
HWRF: Cat 4 by 09z Thursday and landfalls roughly in the location of Spring Warrior Fish Camp Thursday evening as a 922mb Major.
HMON: Cat 4 by 12z Thursday and landfalls near Keaton Beach, Fl Thursday evening 929mb Major.
HAFS-A: Cat 4 by about 18z Thursday and landfalls near Steinhatchee, Fl Thursday night as an apparent Major.
HAFS-B: Cat 4 by 09z Thursday and landfalls Thursday night roughly south of Fish Creek in the Big Bend Wildlife Management Area as an apparent Major
There still appears to be some higher levels of shear from the enhanced outflow courtesy what was Major Hurricane John, now just inland along the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, MX. This additional shear may yet not be sufficiently captured by models, but it does look as though they are taking at least some into account.
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