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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
      Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM

Trend among the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles seems to be increasing the possibility of two distinct systems in the Gulf:

1. The lead wave that helps pull up the area of spin down around South America tries to develop, with several ensemble members doing so but almost all of those staying on the weaker side and driving whatever it is (wave/low/TD) into Mexico or south Texas as mostly a breezy rain-maker, and

2. The area of preexisting spin that the lead wave pulls up, with an apparent majority of members of both global models cranking up from TD to strong hurricane, with most of those then driving it into the northern or eastern Gulf (from about Lake Charles, LA to the Everglades National Park, in the 12z and 18z runs).

It is noteworthy that many runs also ramp the Central American Gyre back up and spin out a system once again on the Pacific side, as well. This is a bit messy and can make early modeling very suspect. Overall, ensemble-implied development odds may be about 80% within 10 days from the NW Carib into the Gulf. NHC has bumped up this region to 50% odds within 7 days.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Milton Lounge cieldumort Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Thu Oct 10 2024 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:40 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Wed Oct 09 2024 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge kellyr   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 08 2024 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge chase 22   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TheQueensBarge   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 07 2024 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Bloodstar   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Bloodstar   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Lautermilch   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:48 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 07 2024 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge criscr0smind   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Sun Oct 06 2024 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Oct 06 2024 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 07:08 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sun Oct 06 2024 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Oct 05 2024 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 04 2024 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L JMII   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L IsoFlame   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2024 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L bob3d   Sat Oct 05 2024 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L OrlandoDan   Sat Oct 05 2024 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 04 2024 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L MichaelA   Fri Oct 04 2024 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof cieldumort   Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Mon Sep 30 2024 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof bob3d   Mon Sep 30 2024 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Tue Oct 01 2024 06:43 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof Owlguin   Fri Oct 04 2024 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof IsoFlame   Fri Oct 04 2024 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof Lamar-Plant City   Fri Oct 04 2024 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Fri Oct 04 2024 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JumadukeFL   Sat Oct 05 2024 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 28 2024 10:44 AM

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