Milton Makes Landfall with Catastrophic Impacts

Ciel

4:55PM EDT 8 October 2024 Update

Hurricane Milton is Category 5 once again. Earlier today the cyclone completed an eyewall replacement and has been reorganizing at a dizzying pace. There is a slight shift to the south with the 18z models, and indeed how it has been tracking overall, and the official NHC cone is nudged a touch in that direction. Everyone is reminded that the hurricane is not itself a point or a line.

To Milton's northeast, an area of frontal boundary and lower pressure that in many ways had possibly been adding some extra tug to the north, is in the process of consolidating off the east coast of Florida and is now a stout gale low that may be acquiring some subtropical and tropical characteristics
Ciel

5:00PM EDT 7 October 2024 Update

HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

11:55AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton is now Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Ciel

9:15AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton continues to RI and recon has just found that the Major Hurricane is up to 150 MPH, still strengthening. There continues to be indications that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur today, and this would result in a process that makes Milton larger and an even greater storm surge producer on Florida.

Preps to protect life and property should be rushing to completion today.
Ciel

4:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Watches and Warnings will likely be issued for portions of Florida within the next 6-12 or so hours.

Milton is now forecast by NHC to peak at 145 MPH (mid-range Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale), but as noted in their discussion, this could be conservative, and Cat 5 is solidly on the table. In fact, some of our better hurricane models are now in the high-end Cat 5 range (what many might call "Cat 6").

Putting the wind threat aside for a moment, which is very high, it is forecast that Milton begins its extra-tropical transition phase prior to landfall, or at the very latest, prior to entering the east coast of Florida. This transitional period is expected to result in lowering the hurricane's top-line max wind speeds, but come at a cost to all of a wind field that spreads out, producing damage over an even greater area, as well as producing surge much further up and down the coasts than if the core held tightly.

Also, the threat of inland flooding will be substantial. The PRE event that has set up in advance of Milton's approach is already producing flooding, and this will be exacerbated during the landfall and passage of Milton.

Those living in or with interests in Florida from the Big Bend region all the way to the South Florida Keys are encouraged to begin taking preparations to protect life and property.
Ciel

1:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
Recon has confirmed that Milton is now a hurricane and NHC is updating the new Advisory at this time.
Ciel

8:00AM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
NOAA Recon aircraft finds Milton stronger with 991mb pressure and 60mph winds. Forecast track remains mostly unchanged, models should tighten up a bit better later today (not until after the 12z runs) with recon data added in. Those in the Florida peninsula in the cone should make preparations today and tomorrow. Hurricane watches for some areas of Florida may be issued sometime tonight or tomorrow.

12:25PM CDT Update
TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Milton.

10:15AM Update
Advisories for TD#14 to begin at 11AM EDT.

Original Update
The area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is now up to a 90% chance to develop, and those along the west coast of Florida should watch it closely as the potential is developing for it to possibly a bad one for somewhere along the southwest or Western Central Florida coastline, and also impact the peninsula to the Atlantic. Including Tampa.

Models range from Naples to near Crystal River, with the angle coming from the west not as oblique as the ones from the West Caribbean, there may be a little more accuracy in track once advisories start to be issued, which could start later tonight or tomorrow depending on how much the system develops.

Timing is most likely for a Wednesday landfall with impacts being felt a day or two (or even Sunday) before in the form of very heavy rain, and more impacts toward later Tuesday surge and wind, with landfall likely daytime Wednesday (which could change)

The worst surge impacts at landfall will likely be at and just to the right (south) of the landfall point, on exit into the Atlantic that switches to the left (north) side with onshore winds.

MILTON FORECAST LOUNGE

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{{StormLinks|Leslie|13|13|2024|Leslie|Leslie}}

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Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 10 2024 12:05 AM)

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