MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Milton Makes Landfall with Catastrophic Impacts
Sat Oct 05 2024 10:07 AM
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8:30PM EDT 9 October 2024 Update Landfall has occurred near Siesta Key, Fl. NHC:Quote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA.... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west coast of Florida.
A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.
The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
1:30PM EDT 9 October 2024 Update Time has mostly run out to safely prepare for life-threatening weather that is already spreading inland across the state, and now is the time to hunker down, away from the water ("Run from the water!"), and protected from the wind and debris ("Hide from the wind!") Quote:
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed later this evening.
Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.
Ciel
4:55PM EDT 8 October 2024 Update
Hurricane Milton is Category 5 once again. Earlier today the cyclone completed an eyewall replacement and has been reorganizing at a dizzying pace. There is a slight shift to the south with the 18z models, and indeed how it has been tracking overall, and the official NHC cone is nudged a touch in that direction. Everyone is reminded that the hurricane is not itself a point or a line.
To Milton's northeast, an area of frontal boundary and lower pressure that in many ways had possibly been adding some extra tug to the north, is in the process of consolidating off the east coast of Florida and is now a stout gale low that may be acquiring some subtropical and tropical characteristics Ciel
5:00PM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
11:55AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update Milton is now Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Ciel
9:15AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update Milton continues to RI and recon has just found that the Major Hurricane is up to 150 MPH, still strengthening. There continues to be indications that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur today, and this would result in a process that makes Milton larger and an even greater storm surge producer on Florida.
Preps to protect life and property should be rushing to completion today. Ciel
4:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Watches and Warnings will likely be issued for portions of Florida within the next 6-12 or so hours.
Milton is now forecast by NHC to peak at 145 MPH (mid-range Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale), but as noted in their discussion, this could be conservative, and Cat 5 is solidly on the table. In fact, some of our better hurricane models are now in the high-end Cat 5 range (what many might call "Cat 6").
Putting the wind threat aside for a moment, which is very high, it is forecast that Milton begins its extra-tropical transition phase prior to landfall, or at the very latest, prior to entering the east coast of Florida. This transitional period is expected to result in lowering the hurricane's top-line max wind speeds, but come at a cost to all of a wind field that spreads out, producing damage over an even greater area, as well as producing surge much further up and down the coasts than if the core held tightly.
Also, the threat of inland flooding will be substantial. The PRE event that has set up in advance of Milton's approach is already producing flooding, and this will be exacerbated during the landfall and passage of Milton.
Those living in or with interests in Florida from the Big Bend region all the way to the South Florida Keys are encouraged to begin taking preparations to protect life and property. Ciel
1:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update Recon has confirmed that Milton is now a hurricane and NHC is updating the new Advisory at this time. Ciel
8:00AM EDT 6 October 2024 Update NOAA Recon aircraft finds Milton stronger with 991mb pressure and 60mph winds. Forecast track remains mostly unchanged, models should tighten up a bit better later today (not until after the 12z runs) with recon data added in. Those in the Florida peninsula in the cone should make preparations today and tomorrow. Hurricane watches for some areas of Florida may be issued sometime tonight or tomorrow.
12:25PM CDT Update TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Milton.
10:15AM Update Advisories for TD#14 to begin at 11AM EDT.
Original Update The area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is now up to a 90% chance to develop, and those along the west coast of Florida should watch it closely as the potential is developing for it to possibly a bad one for somewhere along the southwest or Western Central Florida coastline, and also impact the peninsula to the Atlantic. Including Tampa.
Models range from Naples to near Crystal River, with the angle coming from the west not as oblique as the ones from the West Caribbean, there may be a little more accuracy in track once advisories start to be issued, which could start later tonight or tomorrow depending on how much the system develops.
Timing is most likely for a Wednesday landfall with impacts being felt a day or two (or even Sunday) before in the form of very heavy rain, and more impacts toward later Tuesday surge and wind, with landfall likely daytime Wednesday (which could change)
The worst surge impacts at landfall will likely be at and just to the right (south) of the landfall point, on exit into the Atlantic that switches to the left (north) side with onshore winds.
MILTON FORECAST LOUNGE
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{{StormLinks|Kirk|12|12|2024|Kirk|Kirk}}
{{StormLinks|Leslie|13|13|2024|Leslie|Leslie}}
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Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 10 2024 12:05 AM)
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