cieldumort
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Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Milton Lounge
Sat Oct 05 2024 03:41 PM
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First, it's very unfortunate that we do not have recon missions already in Milton today. A few fortuitous microwave passes have at least helped with ascertaining current strength and structure of the cyclone, but as far as creating reliable forecasts go, ideally we would have recon flying nonstop already. I mention this as a caveat to all the models that are now rolling out, and also mention that I'm hesitant to share my own best guesses without recon data.
Second, it cannot be stressed enough that a wind scale alone, (Saffir-Simpson), is wholly insufficient to shorthand the dangers of any TC, and especially TCs such as Helene, and now perhaps Milton also. There is a discomforting chance that Milton never attains Major status, or worse, attains Major only to "weaken" before landfall (especially with a forecast of any such "weakening"), giving laypeople the deceptive impression that "it's not going to be bad."
The expected perpendicular angle of approach to the west coast of Florida is unusual in general. Newcomers and folks who otherwise may never have experienced a hurricane approaching the west coast from this angle may not have a clue. The fatality count from surge alone could be horrendous.
Soap box out of the way, here are some 12z hurricane model run overviews:
HWRF: Cat 3/4 by 06z Tues. Cat 4+ by 0z Wed. Landfall around Saint Petersburg as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 3 03z Thursday (Wednesday night).
HMON: Cat 3 by 09z Tues. Cat 4 by 0z Wed. Landfall around the Suncoast Keys predawn Thursday as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3.
HAFS-A: Cat 3 by 18z Tues. Landfall near Bayonet Point as a potentially catastrophic surge-producing "only Cat 1/2" midday Wednesday.
HAFS-B: Cat 3 by 06z Tues. Cat 4 by 15z Tues. Cat 5 by 21z Tues. Landfall near Chassahowitzka Bay as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3 Wednesday morning.
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