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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Milton Lounge
      Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM

Quote:

I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with Charley and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the GFS has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the GFS (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent GFS models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.




EURO runs four times a day. UKMET is generally not a preferred Global as far as TCs in the western Atlantic basin are concerned. It tends to perform very poorly relative to the others. In our part of the world at least, the GFS handles the big picture far better than UKMET.

Plot changes are not a result of extrapolation. Plot changes are a result of highly sophisticated weather modeling interpreted by hurricane experts at NHC and, in other basins, other agencies.

Milton is not over land whatsoever, and is very unlikely to track over the Yucatan.

Ciel

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Milton Lounge cieldumort Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Thu Oct 10 2024 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 09 2024 05:40 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Wed Oct 09 2024 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Wed Oct 09 2024 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 09 2024 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge kellyr   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 08 2024 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge chase 22   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TheQueensBarge   Tue Oct 08 2024 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 07 2024 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Bloodstar   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Bloodstar   Tue Oct 08 2024 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 08 2024 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Lautermilch   Tue Oct 08 2024 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge TXEB   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 08 2024 07:48 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Rhino7170   Tue Oct 08 2024 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 07 2024 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 07 2024 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge criscr0smind   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Sun Oct 06 2024 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge bob3d   Mon Oct 07 2024 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 07 2024 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 07 2024 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Ed Ardzinski   Mon Oct 07 2024 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 06 2024 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 06 2024 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sun Oct 06 2024 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Oct 06 2024 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 06 2024 07:08 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sun Oct 06 2024 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sun Oct 06 2024 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Oct 05 2024 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge JMII   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Milton Lounge Kraig   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 04 2024 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L JMII   Sat Oct 05 2024 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L IsoFlame   Sat Oct 05 2024 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2024 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L bob3d   Sat Oct 05 2024 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L OrlandoDan   Sat Oct 05 2024 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 04 2024 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Early Oct Invest 92L MichaelA   Fri Oct 04 2024 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof cieldumort   Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Mon Sep 30 2024 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof bob3d   Mon Sep 30 2024 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Tue Oct 01 2024 06:43 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof Owlguin   Fri Oct 04 2024 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof IsoFlame   Fri Oct 04 2024 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof Lamar-Plant City   Fri Oct 04 2024 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JMII   Fri Oct 04 2024 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof JumadukeFL   Sat Oct 05 2024 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 28 2024 10:44 AM

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