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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next few days at least
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Milton) , Major: 13 (Milton) Florida - Any: 13 (Milton) Major: 13 (Milton)
Rem Oscar
ADV#15 2:00 pm EDT
23.0N 74.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 12 mph
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2482
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Oscar Lounge
      Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM

With hurricane models given an opportunity to play catch-up with the actual intensity and organization of Oscar, the 18z runs out today are coming in hot. These are all plausible, but need to be tempered with the understanding that Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, susceptible to rapid decreases of intensity and organization, not just increases.

The structure of Oscar on IR satellite as of 23z does not line up well with the 18z forecasts below.

Some of today's primary 18z Hurricane Model Runs

HAFS-A: Crosses Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 3. (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall mid-morning tomorrow, the 20th, on southeast Cuba as a Cat 4.

HAFS-B: Crosses by Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 2/3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Scrapes by Grand Inagua, Bahamas predawn tomorrow as a Cat 5. Landfall on southeast Cuba midday tomorrow, the 20th, as a Cat 4/5.

HWRF: Crosses Big Amergris Cay by 0z as a Cat 3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall on extreme southeast Cuba midday tomorrow as a Cat 2.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Oscar Lounge cieldumort Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Oscar Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Oscar Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 12:47 AM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 12:55 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 14 2024 11:22 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 15 2024 11:41 AM

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