Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 55 (Milton) , Major: 55 (Milton) Florida - Any: 55 (Milton) Major: 55 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Oscar Lounge
      Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM

With hurricane models given an opportunity to play catch-up with the actual intensity and organization of Oscar, the 18z runs out today are coming in hot. These are all plausible, but need to be tempered with the understanding that Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, susceptible to rapid decreases of intensity and organization, not just increases.

The structure of Oscar on IR satellite as of 23z does not line up well with the 18z forecasts below.

Some of today's primary 18z Hurricane Model Runs

HAFS-A: Crosses Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 3. (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall mid-morning tomorrow, the 20th, on southeast Cuba as a Cat 4.

HAFS-B: Crosses by Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 2/3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Scrapes by Grand Inagua, Bahamas predawn tomorrow as a Cat 5. Landfall on southeast Cuba midday tomorrow, the 20th, as a Cat 4/5.

HWRF: Crosses Big Amergris Cay by 0z as a Cat 3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall on extreme southeast Cuba midday tomorrow as a Cat 2.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Oscar Lounge cieldumort Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Oscar Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Oscar Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 12:47 AM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 19 2024 12:55 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 14 2024 11:22 PM
. * * Re: October 94L Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 15 2024 11:41 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 3148

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center