Mid October After Milton: Nadine and Oscar

I think Florida is out of the woods for the rest of October given the dominate high that has settled in over the southeast US coast. Still, plenty of fuel remaining in the Caribbean Sea, and consistent model runs suggest a large area of low pressure will try to spin up a TC during the first week in November- possibly becoming a hurricane tracking to the NE of Puerto Rico by election day.

This fall's late hurricane season set-up reminds me of 1984 when a Thanksgiving nor-easter ramped up due to strong high pressure holding over the eastern seaboard combined with an area of low pressure drifting north in the Bahamas to produce near-hurricane-force onshore winds and 8-10" of rain along Florida's central east coast for several days, leading to severe erosion and coastal flooding. At the time, worked at Long Point Park and lived on a sailboat anchored in a hurricane hole near Sebastion Inlet. Water levels in the Indian River Lagoon rose due to the flooding rains, onshore flow combined with lunar peak tides to produce levels 3-4' above normal. We told campers in the park to leave immediately or shelter in place as the water inundated the park.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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