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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Rafael Lounge
      Thu Oct 24 2024 11:56 AM

Models and ensemble members are increasingly warming up to the idea that a broad area of low pressure will form in the western Caribbean or across Central America (in the form of a gyre) next week, and out of this region a tropical cyclone could develop around the end of the month or early November. Generally, operational and ensemble member runs suggest about a 40% chance of TC genesis in this region, which would immediately be landlocked, and as such, we are starting a Lounge on this modeled feature.

More details to come

The modeled broad low pressure area in the Caribbean has formed and has been Invest tagged 97L. The title has been updated accordingly.
2024-11-02 12:00 11.3 -80.7 20

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (97L) at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), and the title has been updated accordingly.
11-3-24 3:30PM EST

Ciel

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Rafael Lounge cieldumort Thu Oct 24 2024 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Rafael Lounge cieldumort   Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge bob3d   Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Kraig   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Keith B   Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib cieldumort   Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib Owlguin   Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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