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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib
      Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM

Based on GFS having consistency over multiple runs for several days, I believe that Florida's central east coast a hundred miles or so north and south of the Cape will be in for a week-long period of strong (possibly gale force) onshore wind starting around Halloween and lasting until Election Day. Given the slow movement of the low (potential TC) coming up from the south into the central or northern Bahamas, SST's and increasing shear will probably limit strengthening to a hurricane, though a strong tropical/hybrid storm not too far off the east coast of Florida is quite possible.

This set-up of a late season low coming up from the south, being pinned down by strong high pressure to the north reminds is reminiscent of the Thanksgiving Day coastal wind/erosion event in 1984 that ravaged the central Florida east coast for 4 days.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Rafael Lounge cieldumort Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Rafael Lounge cieldumort   Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge bob3d   Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Kraig   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Keith B   Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib cieldumort   Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib Owlguin   Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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