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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 54 (Milton) , Major: 54 (Milton) Florida - Any: 54 (Milton) Major: 54 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib
      Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM

Slower evolution of any Caribbean system(s) given last days-worth of modeling. Some runs suggest formation of a pair of lows- one scooting off to the NE and the other pinned down in the Caribbean Sea by a blocking high to the north, so system remains south of the islands strengthening over what Brian Norcross says is currently "the warmest (upper 80's)/deepest water on the planet".

My gut feeling remains about the same... a slowly evolving TC remaining nearly stationary in the Caribbean, then drifting north across Haiti or eastern tip of Cuba into the Bahamas as a tropical storm (possibly becoming a hybrid system) the week after Election Day. That's as far out as I care to conjugate at this time.

Bottom line for the Milton-battered, extremely vulnerable beaches of east central Florida north of the Cape... more coastal erosion likely through Halloween well into November.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Oct 29 2024 01:05 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Rafael Lounge cieldumort Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Rafael Lounge cieldumort   Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge bob3d   Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Kraig   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
. * * Re: November 97L Lounge Keith B   Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib cieldumort   Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib Owlguin   Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib IsoFlame   Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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