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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib
Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM

Slower evolution of any Caribbean system(s) given last days-worth of modeling. Some runs suggest formation of a pair of lows- one scooting off to the NE and the other pinned down in the Caribbean Sea by a blocking high to the north, so system remains south of the islands strengthening over what Brian Norcross says is currently "the warmest (upper 80's)/deepest water on the planet".

My gut feeling remains about the same... a slowly evolving TC remaining nearly stationary in the Caribbean, then drifting north across Haiti or eastern tip of Cuba into the Bahamas as a tropical storm (possibly becoming a hybrid system) the week after Election Day. That's as far out as I care to conjugate at this time.

Bottom line for the Milton-battered, extremely vulnerable beaches of east central Florida north of the Cape... more coastal erosion likely through Halloween well into November.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Oct 29 2024 01:05 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	bob3d	Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Kraig	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Keith B	Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	cieldumort	Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	Owlguin	Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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