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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib
Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

Based on the last several days of runs, the weather highlights for the next 2 weeks along Florida's east coast will be a continuation of the past week- an extended period of moderate to strong onshore flow off the Atlantic during multiple high (but thankfully not peak) fall tide cycles.

While having a hard time latching onto any TC organizing, I still believe the environment in the Carribean Sea and Bahamas could support a tropical or hybrid storm- a closed sub-1000 mb low riding the Gulf Stream just offshore along Florida's east coast following Election Day.

The slower evolution of a TC in the Caribbean, followed by a northward movement possibly coinciding with the retreat of a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula and finally progressive movement of the strong high that has dominated the western Atlantic for weeks will allow the low an escape route as the axis of the high pulls away from Bermuda.

Regardless of what evolves, the ingredients will be in place for moderate to severe coastal impacts. Not good for areas north of the Cape that were battered by Milton's exit just 3 three weeks ago.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM
Re: Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	bob3d	Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Kraig	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Keith B	Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	cieldumort	Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	Owlguin	Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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