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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.

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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: November 97L Lounge
Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM

Quote:

Looks like an eastern GOM storm.

Too early to call with much confidence. Very dependent on how much intensification occurs while in the Caribbean Sea, and the strong/persistent ridge that has held over the east coast (for days on end) finally progressing east out into the Atlantic later in the week. Slower organization in the Caribbean would mean a weaker TC entering the Gulf on a NW then WNW track, staying further off Florida's west coast.

PTC18's current slow northward drift allows for more time to organize and strengthen over the exceptionally warm/deep Caribbean. A period of rapid intensification would then be possible before impacting Cuba. This would also allow more time for the ridge north of the system to weaken/retreat, with a more northerly track closer to Florida as a stronger hurricane.

Given the current forecast uncertainty beyond several days, the Florida panhandle and the peninsula should pay attention to each update early this week until the forecast falls into place.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
Re: Rafael Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Nov 08 2024 12:09 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Nov 02 2024 12:33 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	bob3d	Sun Nov 03 2024 08:49 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 07:02 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Mon Nov 04 2024 09:50 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Kraig	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:54 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Nov 05 2024 08:03 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	JMII	Wed Nov 06 2024 10:31 AM
Re: November 97L Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Nov 04 2024 02:51 PM
Re: November 97L Lounge	Keith B	Sun Nov 03 2024 11:08 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	cieldumort	Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	Owlguin	Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 31 2024 05:39 PM

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