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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Mid Nov Caribbean
      Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM

More models and their ensembles are now latching on to the idea of a broad area of low pressure forming this week in the central to western Caribbean, ramping up a TC over the course of the next several days. A few runs have been very aggressive, as conditions for Rapid Intensification still exist off and on in this region.

A series of waves approaching from the east are likely to interact with the general gyre setup, and it seems likely at least one of them should help trigger this anticipated Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Depending on just where genesis occurs, should it occur, will have substantial influence on any future track and intensity, but the general consensus is for either

Weaker > west to northwest (crossing central America into the east pac):

W into central America, possibly as a strong storm
NW towards the western gulf, being battled by inhospitable conditions much the same was as Rafael, but perhaps still a brief HUR then storm

Stronger > north to northeast (threatening Cuba and perhaps south Florida and the Bahamas):

N to NE with RI in the northern Caribbean as it passes over or near Cuba, possibly to track into the Florida Straits


Recon will probably be tasked this week and thus models will fine tune and most likely come into better agreement.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sara Lounge cieldumort Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 14 2024 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 13 2024 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 13 2024 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD JMII   Tue Nov 12 2024 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD IsoFlame   Tue Nov 12 2024 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM

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