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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 60 (Milton) , Major: 60 (Milton) Florida - Any: 60 (Milton) Major: 60 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Re: Nineteen Lounge
      Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM

Among the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members, there is a clear pattern of tracking towards Florida if NINETEEN ramps up quickly and begins pulling poleward without running into land early. This solution is in the minority as of 18z. Most members show the cyclone taking longer to ramp up, and thus tracking more westerly early on, consequently also running into and over land for longer, with little substantial recovery if and when once in the Gulf.

Without having had the benefit of any recon missions today or microwave passes of any real quality, it is difficult yet to discern which solution is more likely. Recon should be in NINETEEN tomorrow, however.

Based on IR and pseudo-VIS satellite imagery, the system may be trending west-southwesterly, in the general cyclonic flow of the regional gyre.

18z ECWMF and GFS ensemble members below credit Weathernerds.org





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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sara Lounge cieldumort Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 14 2024 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 13 2024 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 13 2024 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD JMII   Tue Nov 12 2024 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD IsoFlame   Tue Nov 12 2024 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM

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