Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Nineteen Lounge
      Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM

Among the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members, there is a clear pattern of tracking towards Florida if NINETEEN ramps up quickly and begins pulling poleward without running into land early. This solution is in the minority as of 18z. Most members show the cyclone taking longer to ramp up, and thus tracking more westerly early on, consequently also running into and over land for longer, with little substantial recovery if and when once in the Gulf.

Without having had the benefit of any recon missions today or microwave passes of any real quality, it is difficult yet to discern which solution is more likely. Recon should be in NINETEEN tomorrow, however.

Based on IR and pseudo-VIS satellite imagery, the system may be trending west-southwesterly, in the general cyclonic flow of the regional gyre.

18z ECWMF and GFS ensemble members below credit Weathernerds.org





Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sara Lounge cieldumort Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 14 2024 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 13 2024 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 13 2024 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD JMII   Tue Nov 12 2024 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD IsoFlame   Tue Nov 12 2024 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 14 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 3586

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center