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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2691
Loc: Austin, Tx

Atlantic/Gulf Area (93L Round 2)
Sun Jul 13 2025 10:16 AM

Above img cr: College of DuPage NEXLAB

We are now tracking an incipient trof of low pressure off the southeast coast, forecast by many models to develop into a closed low. Given its proximity to land and the overnight blowup of deep convection to the east and northeast of Florida, we are already starting a Forecast Lounge on this feature, despite the lack of an official Invest tag. The next tag on the list should be 93L.

While model support from most global operational runs has not been especially impressive, their individual ensemble members and several of the hyper-focused runs of convection allowing models (CAMS) advertise the potential for development into a TD even before crossing Florida from the east, ultimately to land into the northeastern Gulf, where conditions for more significant development could exist.

Tracking forecasts suggest that this area of low pressure could come ashore somewhere from as far east as between the far western Florida panhandle to as far west as the upper Texas coast, with more probable locations roughly in the middle of these points, but it is still very early and a bona fide low has yet to even form. Much more fine-tuning to come.

The title will be changed if/once an Invest tag is added to this feature. Current NHC odds of development are near 0% within 48 hours and 20% within 7 days, but this seems likely to go up, perhaps substantially, by tonight.

The trof we have been following off the southeast coast has now been Invest tagged, 93L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel

Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 22 2025 08:18 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Atlantic/Gulf Area (93L Round 2)	cieldumort	Sun Jul 13 2025 10:16 AM
Re: Atlantic/Gulf Area (93L Round 2)	cieldumort	Thu Jul 24 2025 06:15 PM
Re: Atlantic/Gulf Area (93L Round 2)	MikeC	Tue Jul 22 2025 08:19 PM
Re: Atlantic/Gulf Area (93L Round 2)	MikeC	Thu Jul 24 2025 11:34 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Jul 19 2025 03:49 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	CFHC	Tue Jul 22 2025 10:00 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Jul 16 2025 07:48 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Jul 17 2025 07:20 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Jul 16 2025 07:01 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 06:21 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 16 2025 07:12 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	CFHC	Wed Jul 16 2025 10:49 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 16 2025 02:39 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 03:32 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 01:44 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 01:17 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 11:09 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 15 2025 12:06 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 06:48 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 15 2025 07:18 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Jul 15 2025 10:49 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Jul 15 2025 11:02 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 01:58 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2025 02:20 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge	bob3d	Mon Jul 14 2025 06:51 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Jul 13 2025 04:49 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 06:16 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 07:35 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 10:52 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 11:39 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	IsoFlame	Mon Jul 14 2025 09:22 AM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	CFHC	Mon Jul 14 2025 10:49 AM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2025 11:14 AM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2025 11:57 AM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	CFHC	Mon Jul 14 2025 01:52 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2025 05:11 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2025 05:42 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Tue Jul 15 2025 04:09 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2025 08:19 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 01:35 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 03:05 PM
Re: SE Trof Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2025 04:17 PM

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