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Slt ch development in the subtropical Atlantic. Disturbance would most likely stay out at sea. Low pressure in Gulf of California could develop. Sonora/AZ flood risk Wed-Thur.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 706 (Milton), US Major: 706 (Milton), FL Any: 706 (Milton), FL Major: 706 (Milton)
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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 2860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Jerry Lounge
      Thu Oct 02 2025 10:59 PM

Operational models and ensembles, including the extraordinarily impressive Google AI ensembles, are very bullish on development of a wave about to exit western Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. Steering forecasts and trends further suggest a track that could take the system, developed into a TC or not, close to if not across the Lesser Antilles late in the runs. Considering the very strong signal for this feature, not yet an Invest but likely to be Invest tagged within 72-144 hours if forecasts begin verifying, we are opening a lounge for discussions of it at this time.


The wave in the far eastern Atlantic we have been tracking was Invest tagged overnight, 95L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2025-10-05 06:00 8N 25.9W 25 KTS

This system has continued to become better organized and advisories are forthcoming for Tropical Storm Jerry on Oct 7th. The title has been updated accordingly.
2025-10-07 12:00 11.3N 43.8W 40 KTS

Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Oct 07 2025 09:56 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jerry Lounge cieldumortModerator Thu Oct 02 2025 10:59 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 05 2025 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Early October E ATL Wave cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 03 2025 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Early October E ATL Wave cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 02 2025 11:27 PM

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