Hurricane Melissa Approaches Jamaica

2:00PM EDT 27 October 2025 Update
Melissa is setting records. In fact, it appears that Melissa may now have the driest eye ever recorded on planet earth.

The 2PM NHC update pegs Melissa's maximum sustained winds at 175 MPH at the surface, but recon and satellite yet again support higher.

Recon recently measured winds at 1,000' above sea level of 240 MPH in the Right-Front-Quadrant (RFQ). Based on the current forecast track, locations on the mountainous island of Jamaica in the hurricane-force radii and within the RFQ may very well experience these winds, and several of these spots are well-populated.

Taking Mandeville as an example. According to Wikipedia, "Mandeville is the capital and largest town in the parish of Manchester in the county of Middlesex, Jamaica. In 2005, the town had an estimated population of 50,000, and including the immediate suburbs within a radius of 16 km the total population was about 72,000." Mandeville's elevation is roughly 2,000' above sea level.

11:00AM EDT 27 October 2025 Update
NHC goes with 165MPH as of the 11AM update today. This could be conservative. Recon data supports higher, and much higher at elevated locations a few hundred feet up, which are certain to impact portions of the island they cross with gusts well over 200 MPH.

On its current forecast track, Jamaican locations within about a 20 mile radius of the eye are likely to be laid in waste, unrecognizable and unlivable for weeks, possibly months, and in some places, potentially years. Flash flooding and land/mudslides will also do a number on areas even outside of the hurricane-force wind radii. Sheltering outside of locations known to be prone to flash flooding and landslides is recommended.
Ciel

5:30AM EDT 27 October 2025 Update
2025 just hit a massive milestone with Melissa becoming the third Category 5 of the year, putting 2025 only behind 2005 for numbers of Category Fives in any one season.

Recon has found pressures down to 917mb, still falling. Recon has also found winds arguably supportive of higher than the 5AM Advisory of 160MPH, still increasing. In fact, a dropsonde found the mean wind in the lowest 150 meters to be 180 MPH. Even a little higher speed than that was recorded at the proxy surface. Thus, the 5AM Adv #24 could be conservative.

It cannot be overstated how potentially dangerous Melissa is. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in warned zones.

NHC

Ciel

12:30PM EDT 26 October 2025 Update
Melissa ended her southwesterly motion this morning and is now tracking generally west to west-northwest, possibly running headstrong into a little more shear, while also having ended her overnight DMAX cycle. These external and internal forces could be resulting in what is shown on radar out of Kingston, Jamaica, to be an open eyewall and some hints of the possible beginnings of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ER). Whatever the reasons, for the time being, Melissa has stopped intensifying, but remains an extremely powerful and dangerous Category Four MAJOR.

Melissa is not a hurricane to second guess in a year that, while so far very lucky for most in terms of landfalls, has still more or less kept up with the theme of the Atlantic basin since 1995. In fact, together with 2025's previous Majors (Gabrielle, Humberto and Erin), 2025 now ties with only 2005, 2008 and 2020 for the most 50+ knot RI events in a season (4): Gabrielle, Humberto, Erin and now Melissa. h/t Kieran Bhatia

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF THIS UPDATE:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

Ciel

Original Update
Melissa is now a hurricane and has a rare forecast calling for a Category 5 major hurricane before landfall, impacts will start to pick up tomorrow and increase in intensity rapidly Monday and landfall possibly early Tuesday morning in the pre-dawn areas somewhere in Jamaica.

If the forecast is correct, it will be the strongest hurricane to impact Jamaica since records began. ;

Active Jamaica Radar Loop:

{{StormLinks|Melissa|13|13|2025|13|Melissa}}

{{StormCarib}}
{{JamaicaLinks}}
{{BahamasNews}}
{{BermudaNews}}

Jamaica Live Cameras
Timelapses and more from Jamiaca
Jamaica Power Outage map

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 27 2025 02:18 PM)

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