just for kicks i counted the number of landfalling hurricane intensity storms in the u.s. back as far as the unisys records go. though i dont consider the older records wholly reliable, they show that there were significantly MORE hits than what weve been averaging over the last half decade or so from 1851 to the 1950s. the overall season average hits during the 151 year period is 1.7 hits a year, 17 a decade. the last time any decade had 17 hits was in the 1950s, ever since the number has fallen short. 14 in the 60s, 12 in the 70s, and 13 in both the 80s and 90s. compare that to 17, 21, 18, 20, 21 from the 1900s to the 1940s. about 50% more, on average. so if the number of u.s. hits WERE a reliable indicator, it would mean that either a higher percentage of storms that formed hit, or that there were just more storms overall and that not all were detected and recorded. but really, fewer hits since the advent of modern observation? is there some force field protecting the u.s.? i wish the government would tell me so i stop hearing about dynogel.
anyhow, another fluke... based on the not too convincing records going back around 150 years, the percentage of seasons without a u.s. hurricane landfall is 19.21%. so, the probability that any three consecutive years will not feature a u.s. hurricane landfall is .192^3, or a mere .71%. so a string of three consecutive years w/o a u.s. hurricane is a 141 year event, based on this figure, based on questionable data.
but since this is just any other year, ignoring the fact that the last two had no hurricane hits, there is a 19% chance that no hurricanes hit.
in other words, if a hurricane doesnt hit this year, it would be a weird, rare event.
we are just so overdue, in so many ways. unless something has fundamentally changed about the climate, u.s. hurricanes are becoming less common.
north carolina is about the only place in the u.s. making par for the average lately.. it is slightly to well below almost everywhere else on the east/gulf coasts.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0609z17july
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