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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Zeta) , Major: 334 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1020 (Michael) Major: 1020 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Reply TO HF
      Mon Sep 29 2003 12:14 PM

LOL jl (and hang onto that action HF).
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I watched JB's tropical update this morning and I'll give you what I got from the discussion. He sees a center somewhere between Cancun and Cozumel. He disagrees with almost all the models. UKMET/GFS rush it off into Mexico. The European moves it north to the UT coast. His problem wtih the European is that he believes the high over the western caribbean will pulse west then back east and there won't be a mechanism for 90L to keep moving west. He likes the idea of something in the south central Gulf vs. something near Mexico/Texas. They he offered divergent forecast problems and just said that this is a situation that the Gulf Coast should be on alert for. He hasn't come out and said "major hurricane threat" but you can see that he's leaning that way utilizing the assumption that it doesn't just head off into Mexico. He thinks it sits in the BOC/Southern Gulf for 4 or 5 days south of the NE flow and cranks. He drew a parallel to Opal but hasn't suggested this will be an Opal. Of note, his hurricane intensity/landfall forecast still needs a hit in the Al/MS and SFL zones to score a coup de'grace for him.
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My take now makes sense to me. Much of the energy will in fact be moving in on FL south of Tampa. It's just that the system as a whole will not be.
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For the SIO SOI Star Wars crew, the SOI remains negative for the 11th day. Flattening/zonal flow should follow the 15 day lag period begun 9/19/03. That means amplification should be more or less busted by Sunday or Monday with the set of tropical problems that goes along with it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Northward Bound Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 29 2003 12:14 PM
. * * 90L, again AlexK   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:23 PM
. * * Re: 90L, again Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:08 PM
. * * 90L AlexK   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:31 PM
. * * Re: 90L jlauderdal   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:38 PM
. * * Re: 90L Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:45 PM
. * * airspace HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:28 PM
. * * weather master? HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:33 PM
. * * Re: weather master? 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 06:58 PM
. * * Re: weather master? stormchazer   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:23 PM
. * * Motion of 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L and Juan LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L and Juan HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc Hurric   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc rmbjoe1954   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:34 AM
. * * Will something form? LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Will something form? Mary K.   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Will something form? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:42 AM
. * * Reply TO HF jlauderdal   Mon Sep 29 2003 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF Steve   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:58 PM
. * * Juan: Gone; Kate: Loopy; Hello Larry? LI Phil   Mon Sep 29 2003 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc Mary K.   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Tropics Guy   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:06 PM
. * * Re: wrel BAMMD Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:37 PM
. * * Re: wrel BAMMD HURRICANELONNY   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Loops Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Loops 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 90L HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:39 PM
. * * Re: 90L jlauderdal   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 27 2003 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Mary K.   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound jlauderdal   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound jlauderdal   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:52 PM
. * * systems go HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:16 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:37 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:36 AM
. * * Re: systems go Rich B   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:13 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:07 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:09 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:29 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:30 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:05 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:24 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:07 PM
. * * Re: systems go Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:38 AM
. * * major correction HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:50 AM
. * * Re: major correction Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:00 AM
. * * Re: major correction Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:11 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:42 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:55 AM
. * * ten a.m. HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:15 AM
. * * Re: ten a.m. HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Northward Bound stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:15 PM
. * * Larry Bud jlauderdal   Fri Sep 26 2003 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Larry Bud Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 27 2003 12:31 AM
. * * tropical depressions galore HanKFranK   Sat Sep 27 2003 02:21 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore Domino   Sat Sep 27 2003 02:55 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 07:15 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:01 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:33 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:45 AM
. * * carib HanKFranK   Sat Sep 27 2003 11:25 AM
. * * Re: carib stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 12:57 PM
. * * Re: carib Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:22 PM
. * * NRL info AlexK   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:48 PM
. * * Re: NRL info Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:58 PM

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