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TD 18 is next up to bat as Peter and Rose just are not making the big leagues this season. Odette may take another swing at it soon, however
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Nicholas) , Major: 24 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1078 (Michael) Major: 1078 (Michael)
22.1N 67.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nnw at 5 mph
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25.2N 41.6W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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10.5N 36.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
W at 15 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Next System?
      Mon Sep 29 2003 02:15 PM

Monday Evening Update

As noted in the TWD earlier this afternoon, the poorly organized center, if you could call it that, has energized further west. At 21Z, the closest thing that I could find with any rotation at all was near 22.4N 88.6W and it was stationary. The overall structure is less well defined than it was 24 hours ago and if the weak center continues to rebuild further to the west, the likelyhood of development will decrease since the upper air environment becomes more hostile. If nothing else, it looks like 90L will be noted for its rainfall from the Yucatan to south Florida.

Original Post

After a short stall south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, Sunday evening, the circulation center of Invest 90L moved in a general northward direction during the night...and it still is, at 10 knots. At 17Z the center was near 22.3N 87.0W, or just to the north of the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The system is still poorly organized but seems to be ever so slowly getting its act together. Water temps are toasty, shear is light (except to the north) and convection predominates to the east of the center. A new area of convection is developing, aided by orographic lift over the northern Yucatan, to the south of the center.

Water vapor imagery defines an eventual northeast to east northeast movement, so even if it doesn't make it much past TD stage because of the increasing shear to the north, it will certainly shove a lot of moisture toward Florida. With a stalled front over central Florida, over-running of moist tropical air will produce plenty of rain for the southern half of the not-so-sunshiney peninsula for the next few days. Flood Watches are already in place for most of central and south Florida. I'd anticipate TD 17 sometime tonight.

Hurricane Juan is gone, but not before bringing gusts of 85 to 90mph to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island shortly after midnight (ET) last night. Kate continues to meander in the central Atlantic and will continue to do so for a few more days. Kate is likely to become the sixth hurricane of the season.

The rest of the basin is quiet and nothing new is on the horizon. Africa is very quiet. The last wave off of the African coast evaporated in less than 12 hours - signs that the Cape Verde season has closed down for the year.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Next System? Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 29 2003 02:15 PM
. * * pressure at 1004 AlexK   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:10 PM
. * * sounds about right AlexK   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:23 PM
. * * What is going on?? AlexK   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:18 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? stuartdave   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:36 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:38 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:26 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:33 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:36 PM
. * * HEY JASON LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:28 PM
. * * Re: What is going on?? Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 05:21 PM
. * * Baby larry AlexK   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:05 PM
. * * Yawn... clyde w.   Tue Sep 30 2003 07:36 PM
. * * Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO HanKFranK   Tue Sep 30 2003 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO andy1tom   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO Steve   Wed Oct 01 2003 12:22 AM
. * * bedtime tidbit Steve   Wed Oct 01 2003 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Good Morning! Mary K.   Wed Oct 01 2003 07:46 AM
. * * ? for Mary jlauderdal   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:50 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mary Mary K.   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:05 PM
. * * Re: ? for Mary 57497479   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:45 PM
. * * Re: ? for Mary jlauderdal   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:18 PM
. * * yep HanKFranK   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:46 PM
. * * It's about d@$m time..... wxman007   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:47 PM
. * * Re: It's about d@$m time..... Mary K.   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:58 PM
. * * Re: It's about d@$m time..... mbfly   Wed Oct 01 2003 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Larry...Florida bound? Tropics Guy   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:04 PM
. * * Speedy Larry jlauderdal   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Larry...Florida bound? stormchazer   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Larry...Florida bound? Mary K.   Wed Oct 01 2003 09:04 PM
. * * Tropical storm Larry has formed Cycloneye   Wed Oct 01 2003 06:43 PM
. * * what the... HanKFranK   Wed Oct 01 2003 10:23 AM
. * * Area north of the Yucatan LoisCane   Wed Oct 01 2003 10:52 AM
. * * Re: BOC javlin   Wed Oct 01 2003 12:29 PM
. * * Re: BOC andy1tom   Wed Oct 01 2003 01:12 PM
. * * Re: BOC Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 01:50 PM
. * * jumping through hoops HanKFranK   Wed Oct 01 2003 02:11 PM
. * * you know......... LoisCane   Wed Oct 01 2003 02:38 PM
. * * new vortex message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 03:01 PM
. * * Re: new vortex message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM
. * * Re: new vortex message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 03:24 PM
. * * Re: new vortex message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 03:26 PM
. * * Second vortex data message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Second vortex data message Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 01 2003 04:41 PM
. * * No TD in the GOM; TD in EastPac LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Area north of the Yucatan Frank P   Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM
. * * Isabel's Aftermath & 90L LI Phil   Wed Oct 01 2003 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Isabel's Aftermath & 90L JimAnderson   Wed Oct 01 2003 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Area north of the Yucatan andy1tom   Wed Oct 01 2003 11:26 AM
. * * Re: what the... ShawnS   Wed Oct 01 2003 10:30 AM
. * * ! Steve   Wed Oct 01 2003 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Good Morning! stormchazer   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:28 AM
. * * Re: Good Morning! javlin   Wed Oct 01 2003 08:04 AM
. * * Hello Larry? Not at 11:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Hello Larry? Not at 11:00 HanKFranK   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:07 PM
. * * cute hank frank, very cute LoisCane   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi's going bonkers! LMAO Mary K.   Tue Sep 30 2003 09:43 PM
. * * 90L AlexK   Tue Sep 30 2003 04:44 PM
. * * Re: 90L Colleen A.   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:04 PM
. * * Re: 90L Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:00 PM
. * * Re: 90L Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 04:51 PM
. * * 90L fighting AlexK   Tue Sep 30 2003 06:39 AM
. * * Re: 90L fighting Mary K.   Tue Sep 30 2003 07:25 AM
. * * blip of convection AlexK   Mon Sep 29 2003 09:51 PM
. * * Definite western circulation...but AlexK   Mon Sep 29 2003 07:15 PM
. * * Re: The Next System? SunNFun   Mon Sep 29 2003 04:00 PM
. * * Hello Larry? LI Phil   Mon Sep 29 2003 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Hello Larry? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 05:43 PM
. * * Watch and Wait mode... LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Watch and Wait mode... 57497479   Mon Sep 29 2003 07:23 PM
. * * a blow off trail???? LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:53 PM
. * * Re: a blow off trail???? 57497479   Mon Sep 29 2003 09:56 PM
. * * Everyone look at this loop please... strange LoisCane   Tue Sep 30 2003 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Everyone look at this loop please... strange 57497479   Tue Sep 30 2003 08:00 AM
. * * Shell game...choose one LoisCane   Tue Sep 30 2003 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one javlin   Tue Sep 30 2003 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one jlauderdal   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:23 AM
. * * 90L and kate HanKFranK   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:22 AM
. * * Re: 90L and kate Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:17 AM
. * * Re: 90L and kate Frank P   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:21 AM
. * * Re: 90L and kate Colleen A.   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:10 PM
. * * New Kate Models LI Phil   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:18 PM
. * * Re: New Kate Models Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:22 PM
. * * Re: New Kate Models LI Phil   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:25 PM
. * * Re: New Kate Models Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:28 PM
. * * Re: New Kate Models LI Phil   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:29 PM
. * * Weak circulation found, but no depression Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 05:23 PM
. * * Re: 90L and kate stormchazer   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:35 AM
. * * Re: 90L and kate Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 12:05 PM
. * * Gale Force Winds Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one javlin   Tue Sep 30 2003 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one andy1tom   Tue Sep 30 2003 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one andy1tom   Tue Sep 30 2003 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 30 2003 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Steve   Tue Sep 30 2003 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one Mary K.   Tue Sep 30 2003 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Shell game...choose one stormchazer   Tue Sep 30 2003 11:22 AM
. * * Re: a blow off trail???? Mary K.   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:07 PM
. * * Re: a blow off trail???? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Watch and Wait mode... stormchazer   Mon Sep 29 2003 06:45 PM
. * * ship observations AlexK   Mon Sep 29 2003 03:15 PM
. * * Re: ship observations Steve   Mon Sep 29 2003 03:35 PM
. * * Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004 Cycloneye   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004 HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Juan damage Tropics Guy   Mon Sep 29 2003 03:42 PM
. * * Re: The Next System? LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 03:11 PM

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