gale center persisting the gulf.. imagine that. more modeling leaning on development now.. all show erratic movement (anything from northwest to southeast). that kind of model play indicates slow, erratic movement. have to admit whatever frontal feature is down there is stunting growth, but i very much doubt that this isnt a tropical storm. again, think the nhc is waiting on a stadium eye to make the upgrade. we've seen much sloppier systems named (and not many better ones not named). that bastardi forecast (wishcast?) sending whatever system is there up to the northern gulf coast is getting a little bit of support at random.. but with a very divergent set of model solutions nothing can be discounted. if he gets it, the pitch was way out of the strike zone.
kate returning to form in the east atlantic, banding eye and all.. slowly accelerating wsw. gfs crowd recurves the storm late in the period, while nogaps is consistently not turning the storm and weakening it. the outcome will probably lie in how strong the storm gets, how much shear it encounters... etc. the parallel to kyle has already been drawn, and that kind of persistence required lots of weakening at times when troughs came to make the pickkup.
other areas models are picking up on possible activity.. after 3 days or so the sargasso sea area may have a frontal disturbance acting up.. and a cold low may slip in from european waters and follow kate, around the canaries-azores in five days or so (these occasionally go native).
anyhow, thats the tropics. free roaming east atlantic system, threatening frontal low in the gulf.
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