joe b excerpt last night made a convincing argument that this is a tropical storm. i can see the fact that it's got a frontal tail nearby, but honestly, what's this thing got to do for nhc to see larry and not a frontal low? i mean c'mon, notice that last night the recon gave a TROPICAL CYCLONE vortex message.
anyhow, model runs on larry/low divergent as can be.. but not trending to mexico quite so much. there's only so much you can gather from them when you consider how they probably aren't initialized quite right.
as for kate.. nhc mentioned the nogaps solution i was thinking of earlier.. explained the reasoning behind it some. the recurvature next week forecast does make more sense.. like the official.
the other watch areas.. bahamas-bermuda and azores-canaries. mid latitude fish spinner candidates... nobody cares except people like me trying to tag development days down the road. long range stuff (gfs) is pointing to more pattern-triggered activity well down the road, more stuff to monitor.
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