Alex: here's the 530 post about the NHC's thoughts:
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MEANDERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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